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Amateurs talk Tactics, Professionals talk Logistics — Historians talk Conditions

Mind-dump, sans-edit

PanFaWar: Pandemic, Famine, War — traveling buddies from Hell.

When one arrives, the other two soon roar in.

They also are recursive and incredibly unpredictable. Recursive in the sense that big pandemic leads to more pandemic. Big war creates spinoff wars through space and time. Echos.

Irish potato famine was about Conditions, not potatoes. Potato shortage was a symptom. Part of that shortage came from pandemic. A blight that destroyed potatoes. But a food shortage is rarely enough to create famine. Study of Famine is essential in study of War.

Pick any famine. Any famine at all. Pick five famines randomly. Use darts. And in your study, you will always find there was plenty of food. Somewhere. Usually not far away. But Logistics often was broken due to war, or Famine was used as a weapon of war. There was plenty of food for the Irish, if the English would have let Americans and others ship the food in. And there were other solutions.

In human history, food shortage has always been local, so far. There has never been a global food shortage, so far. The famines result from Conditions. Logistics breaks down. Next thing you know things get Biblical and in the real sense. Look how many times the Bible mentions cannibalism.

Nothing we are experiencing now is new. Old People warned about it in books for centuries. It’s all happened many times before. This time on grander scale, but the patterns remain. A small circle and a big circle are nearly identical, and in most ways, are. It feels like cheating to read all these old books. Pi was pi then, and now.

Other aspects of the Conditions were English mistreating Irish, which of course feeds into War.

Famines lead to big and small migrations, and more food shortages. Migrations spread and create — or rather unleash — pandemic.

Famines reduce resilience, making home for Pandemic. Pandemic reduces resilience. Making people sick, who work and hunt less. Making them weaker still.

Pandemic and wars also create migrations, and migrations feed the PanFaWar Loop.

Thus it’s good to live far away from big metro areas when logistics collapses. Hungry masses will come to the where the food is. The closer you live to food production, the less you are directly effected by Logistics. And Logistics is in the vast majority of cases a key component of famine.

Examine your logistics vulnerabilities and strengths. Put some thought into your situation.

Learn to store food. To make your own canning. Back to Mason Jars. I got a lot right at the beginning of pandemic. Large amounts of salt, vinegar, etc.

Remember that famine is never forever. You just have to get through the hurricane and get back to work when the winds die down.

In the old days, it was good to live at least two days walk from such places where massive numbers of people may suddenly be hungry. Now, best to be a tank of gas away. (Not that most people can do this).

Remember the signs by towns during the Great Depression? Such as NO JOBS HERE. KEEP ON MOVING.

War is coming. And it’s not about sparks, but Conditions. Logistics are part of the higher-level matrix that is Conditions. Amateurs talk sparks. Professionals talk Conditions.

Production and Logistics are high-level aspects of Conditions.

And as Al Johnson Senior tells me from time to time, “Organizational structure dictates outcome.” Retired Army Colonel. This is one of those things that first time you hear it, truth of the statement flashes. Basically, we get the product of the assembly line we create.

The plant management has created an assembly line of PanFaWar components.

We are going to war. Prepare yourself.

(100) Amateurs talk Tactics, Professionals talk Logistics —… – Michael Yon Community (

Michael Yon

Michael Yon is America's most experienced combat correspondent. He has traveled or worked in 82 countries, including various wars and conflicts.

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