The Hague, Netherlands
Mind Dump, sans edit
Much information coming in from Panama. Some parts very peaceful.
During times like this — ignore the ‘sparks.’ Sparks don’t matter. Conditions matter.
A firework factory can explode in a wet rainforest, and there will be no forest fire. In a dry forest, a carelessly discarded cigarette can march with rage over the horizon.
Panama conditions from my view:
Any price freezes or subsidy agreements are a fire extinguisher in a forest fire. Global conditions are worsening. There is no easy way out. Endemic corruption is no doubt severe but even invoking the ‘magic wand’ in a thinking experiment — magically fixing the corruption — will not suddenly fix the global fuel and other issues.
Short of a global turnaround — too much inertia and enemy action for sudden turnaround — Panama is a tiny boat on hurricane seas. A tiny but vital boat per the magic of geography: Major invasion corridor proximate to the United States and Panama Canal.
To look for sparks and outcomes of “negotiations” is a waste of time. Best estimates will be based on global and regional conditions. Both are terrible. Both are worsening. The storm is severe and picking up energy.
Sparks don’t matter. Don’t talk about sparks or negotiations. Watch conditions.
Panama at this rate will go Lord of the Flies: