My estimation is Russia is not bluffing on fuel shipping. They may cripple big-mouth no-ass Europe. Putin has been busy working with other buyers — CCP/India, for example. Eventual famine in Europe is a real possibility if this constellation of issues worsens. Da da tan tan.
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They understand what is coming. Putin wants Rubles for his gas. Ain’t happening. What is Putin going to do? eat the oil and gas?
Much of Putin’s oil is shipped from a port near St. Petersburg, and Novorossiysk. Both are shallow water ports and none of it can be shipped by pipe to China. India will have to send ships and they will have to have sovereign indemnity as insurance companies aren’t insuring anyone going to the Black Sea. It is improbable they will go to the Baltic for it either.
Peter Zeihan goes into the problems facing Russia in this and other matters in presentations given recently to the US Army and other organizations. One is found here:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UcMQW1unBcs
This covers most of the problems. It may not cover something in great detail, but what is laid out is deadly to Russia.